[What does excess mortality tell us?]

Excess mortality due to covid-19 is estimatedas actual mortality minus expected mortality in the covid-19 period. Excess mortality in 2020-2021 in the Netherlands is estimated to be 30,000 persons. Excess mortality should be divided in mortality as consequences of covid-19 infections (direct effects) and mortality due indirect effects of the pandemic. As excess mortality assesses mortality under one single scenario (the actual scenario including its specific measures), it cannot directly be used to know what the number of deaths would have been under different scenarios. In line, it cannot be used to determine whether actual measures in the covid-19 pandemic were optimal (or not). And obviously, excess mortality only assesses the impact on mortality, not the impact on other relevant health-related, sociological or economical areas.

[Current and future therapeutic options for COVID-19]

The anti-inflammatory agents dexamethasone (corticosteroid), and tocilizumab and sarilumab (IL6-inhibitors) are effective in the treatment of late COVID-19. Other anti-inflammatory agents, like anakinra (IL1-inhibitor), baricitinib and tofacitinib (JAK-inhibitors) and lenzilumab (GM-CSF-inhibitor) have also shown positive results in late COVID-19. For the treatment of early COVID-19, the inhalation corticosteroid budesonide is regarded as an off-label treatment option. Virus-inhibitors, like remdesivir, molnupiravir and nirmatrelvir/ritonavir decrease the risk of hospitalization and the development of severe COVID-19 by patients with early symptoms. Monoclonal antibodies have shown limited or no efficacy against the omicron-variant of SARS-CoV-2. Fluvoxamine, l-arginine, AT-527 and ensovibep are considered as potential promising new therapies for the treatment of early COVID-19.

[Code dark grey in hospitals: short hospital admission and high mortality due to COVID-19]

During the COVID-19 pandemic, we have experienced several waves in which the number of hospital beds occupied by patients with COVID-19 has varied greatly. In December 2022, hospitals were under a tremendous pressure, and were forced to upgrade their capacity to phase 2D ("Code Dark Grey"). This is the last phase prior to phase 3 ("Code Black"), in which we would be unable to treat all patients and would be forced to triage based on medical and non-medical characteristics of the patients. In this brief analysis, we demonstrate that phase 2D is characterized by a relatively short mean period of hospital admission and a higher hospital mortality.